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    In 2017’s, #luxury brands will have to work a lot harder to sell their pricey goods | @adetem @

    FROM QUARTZ MEDIA LLC | WRITTEN BY MARC BAIN | 24 JANUARY, 04 2017

    Last year was a bad one for many companies selling expensive fashion, handbags, and jewelry. For the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, the global market for personal luxury goods failed to grow, stalling at €249 billion (about $258 billion).

    luxury, china, fashion, growth, bnp, exanebnp

    The good news is that 2017 should see a return to growth, according to a Dec. 28 report on the global luxury market by management consulting firm Bain & Company, only it won’t look anything like the boom years from 2010 to 2015, when global sales of such goods jumped 45%, fueled by Chinese consumers with high-end appetites. The slowing of China’s economy and its government’s ongoing crackdown on corruption, paired with turmoil in the US and Europe from Brexit, terrorism, and the US presidential election, have created a “new normal” of low single-digit growth and intense competition. The years ahead will produce “clear winners and losers,” Bain says, determined by which brands can read the field and respond best.

    China is at the center of this shift. Today Chinese shoppers account for 30% of all sales of personal luxury goods. While Bain foresees the Chinese market improving again after contracting slightly in 2016, it isn’t likely to return to its former rate of expansion, which insulated brands’ bottom lines from other problems. “We expect around 30 million new customers in the next five years coming from the Chinese middle class,” Claudia D’Arpizio, a Bain partner and lead luxury analyst, told Quartz in an interview last year. “But this is nothing comparable to the past big waves of demographics entering [the market]. This new normality will mean mainly trying to grow organically in the same consumer base, being more innovative with product, more innovative with communication.”

    Exane BNP Paribas echoed the thought in a December research note to clients. “The peak of the largest nationality wave ever to benefit luxury goods is behind us,” the authors wrote. “Brands need a new paradigm, other than opening more stores in China and bumping up prices.”

    The period luxury is entering could see some of its slowest growth since it started opening up to a mass audience around 1994. That was the year, D’Arpizio noted, that “the jeweler of kings and queens,” Cartier, launched its first lower-priced line for mainstream consumers. Other brands followed in search of greater sales, and names “like Gucci, Prada, also Bulgari were really growing, doubling size every year, sometimes triple-digit growth rates, opening up to 60 stores every year and covering all the capitals across the globe,” she said.

    Around 2001 came another period of expansion when brands became global retailers, not just selling wholesale, amid a spate of acquisitions that would eventually create today’s giant luxury conglomerates, including LVMH and Kering (previously Gucci Group). By the time of the financial crisis, luxury had conquered much of the US, Europe, and Japan, and then China came along to offer more unfettered growth.

    There’s no new China, however, at least not now. The next big luxury market is likely Africa, particularly countries such as Congo, Angola, and South Africa. But D’Arpizio estimated this scenario won’t come about for seven to 10 years, meaning only moderate expansion for some time.

    “In the new normal, we expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% to 4% for the luxury goods market through 2020, to approximately €280 billion,” Bain’s report says. “That is significantly slower than the rapid expansion from the mid-1990s to the late 2000s.”

    Other characteristics of this new period include more shoppers making purchases at home. Last year, local purchases exceeded tourist purchases by five percentage points, the first time since 2001 that has happened.

    And digital sales will keep growing. Last year they accounted for 8% of the industry.

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    #Luxury goods spending by #Chinese #tourists down 24 per cent in March: #GlobalBlue [#promiseconsulting]

    PARIS - Spending on luxury goods by Chinese shoppers abroad fell last month for the first time since such records began in 2010, leading to the worst ever monthly result for the luxury goods industry's tourist sales, retail tax-refund services company Global Blue said on Friday. 

    Spending by Chinese tourists in March tumbled 24 per cent, dragged down by a 35 per cent year-on-year drop in Europe, where the Paris and Brussels attacks have kept some tourists away.

    A reduction in the price gap with Europe has also lifted spending within China.

    "The slowdown in Europe is due to a tougher comparison, the impact of the terrorist strikes and the effect of the introduction of biometric visas, although the overall growth of the Chinese consumer globally has slowed and remains a concern,"Barclays analysts said of the figures.

    Global Blue data showed that overall tourist spending on luxury items fell 14 per cent in March after rising 4 per cent in February.

    The firm's figures do not include tourism spending in the United States, Hong Kong and Dubai, which do not have value-added tax refund systems.

    Luxury goods industry leader LVMH and British luxury fashion brand Burberry both said this week that they had seen a drop in tourist spending in continental Europe.

    For some big luxury brands such as Cartier and Louis Vuitton tourists account for more than 50 per cent of customers in certain European markets. Chinese consumers account for almost a third of the global luxury goods market.

    After the attacks on Brussels and Paris, LVMH said there had been fewer visitors travelling to Europe "from the East", its term for Russia and Asia. Burberry added that tough market conditions would hit profit in the year ahead.

    Global Blue said Russian tourist spending fell 22 per cent last month, weighed on by a drop in the value of the rouble and the weak home economy which has been hit by lower oil prices and continuing international sanctions over Ukraine.

    Last week consultancy Bain & Co forecast that the luxury goods market would reach a low point this year, due to lower levels of tourists travelling to Europe, depressed trading in Hong Kong, weaker demand in China and a relatively subdued US market.

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    [Figure You Should Know] - $253 Billions [#luxury #expenditures #world #promiseconsulting @BainAlerts]

    This is the amount associated to the worldwide personal luxury goods market for the last year and estimated by Bain & Co. It was expected to grow – from 2014 to 2015 – only at 1 to 2 % at constant exchange rates and 13% at current exchange rates. This market should weigh for 24% of the total amount accounted of 1 044 billions €.

    Personal luxury goods includes fashion, cosmetics and jewellery amongst others.

    Slowing down little by little over the years even though they are still among the top in this segment, China seems to suffer from this impact on its economy.

    Chinese’s preferences now went to a less materialistic way of living and are favoring traveling or spas, purchases that influences their well-being. Also, Chinese prefer to shop abroad, as the consumption tax and import tariff impede their spending and since they are willing to buy original and authentic goods that they are most likely to find outside their country.

    Source : Bain & Co, Global Luxury Report, 2015

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    [#China #Bain]- Chinese luxury spending shifts further abroad with 2% domestic decline

    BAIN: CHINESE LUXURY SPENDING SHIFTS FURTHER ABROAD WITH 2% DOMESTIC DECLINE

    After heading into the red last year amidst a market slowdown, China’s luxury market decline sunk even further in 2015, according to Bain & Company’s annual industry report.

    As Chinese consumers continued to opt to make their luxury purchases abroad, Bain found that  the value of mainland China’s luxury market declined by 2 percent to 113 billion RMB in 2015. The decline was driven by large slumps in men’s watches, clothing, and leather goods, says the report.

    The bright spot for the global luxury industry remains Chinese spending overseas. Although China’s economic growth is slowing and the country’s anti-corruption campaign continues, Chinese consumers still upped their luxury spending abroad by 10 percent in the past year. Japan was a main beneficiary of this trend, with the report stating that Chinese luxury spending in the country increased by over 200 percent. Favorable exchange rates and lower prices also made South Korea, Europe, and Australia popular shopping destinations, while spending in Hong Kong and Macau dropped by one-quarter.

    This increase in travel spending didn’t lead to an increase in daigou shopping, however, which is likely a welcome development for luxury retailers. According to Bain & Company, the daigoumarket contracted to become worth about 43 billion RMB after being hit by efforts to contain it, including increased customs restrictions and a weak RMB. In addition, cross-border sales websites contributed to the daigou decline, and accounted for 48 billion of 293 billion RMB spent by Chinese consumers on luxury overseas in the past year.

     

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