TRAUB & Threadstone invite you to the First T.TALK |Thursday, Feb 2nd, NYC

"WHICH FASHION HOUSES HAVE THE 'HOTTEST' BRANDS?"

Discussion led by the founders of the Worldwide Barometer Exclusivity & Desirabil| ity of Luxury Brands Index

Luca Solca, Head of luxury goods research of financial services firm Exane BNP Paribas. Luca is the #1 ranked analyst for luxury coverage.

&

Philippe Jourdan, Partner at Promise Consulting, the premier luxury marketing research firm in Europe focused on measuring brand equity.

Thursday, February 2nd, 2017, 6:30 PM

Le Skyroom | 22 E 60th Street, NY 10022

PLEASE RSVP TO ahafkin@marvintraub.com by January 27th

Space is limited so a prompt RSVP is appreciated.

JANUARY 2017 | LUCA SOLCA | EXANE BNP

HERMES INTERNATIONAL: HERMES MORPHING INTO A MEGA- BRAND

[TO CONTACT US]

The Hermès paradigm (as we saw it)
Over time, Hermès has built a most enviable position in the luxury goods industry (The Epitome of Modern Luxury). This - in our view - was built on four pillars: 1) frustrating demand for its iconic leather models; 2) using adjacent product categories to provide accessible entry price points (Entry Price Points and the real Nature of Luxury Goods), while keeping the core leather products expensive and out of reach (Category Segregation); 3) sticking to organic growth and avoiding acquisitions; and 4) maximising retail space productivity and ROIC.

Hermès is changing ...
Hermès seems to be moving away from its tried-and-tested formula of frustrating demand for its iconic products. It has, in fact, increased leather goods manufacturing capacity over the past few years. The principle of 'category segregation' also seems to have been discarded, as consumers can buy Hermès handbags at significantly lower prices and just north of EUR1,000. These are not Birkin or Kelly, obviously, but they are still Hermès handbags: Evelyne, Garden Party, Picotin, etc.

... and morphing into a Mega-Brand
We think that 'demand frustration' and 'category segregation' were the two traits that set Hermès apart from mega-brand peers. With these gone, the 'genetic difference' between Hermès and - say - Louis Vuitton is more difficult to identify. Hermès is still more desirable in the eyes of some consumer nationalities (Measuring Brand Exclusivity and Desirability - China), but this seems more a difference in 'intensity' than in 'nature' as other consumers seem to have the opposite perception (Measuring Brand Exclusivity and Desirability - France).

LES ECHOS.FR | DOMINIQUE CHAPUIS | 11 JANVIER 2017

INTERVIEW P. JOURDAN DONNE AUX ECHOS

Le marché français de l'habillement est en baisse depuis neuf ans et les chaînes réduisent leur surface commerciale.

l n'y a pas que la crise et les contraintes budgétaires des Français qui pèsent sur les soldes. Le moindre intérêt des consommateurs pour cette traditionnelle période de rabais témoigne aussi du fait qu'il est désormais possible de faire de bonnes affaires toute l'année, dans les magasins comme sur le Web.

 « Il y a une dilution des soldes dans un contexte de remises permanentes. Acheter moins cher est possible partout et tout le temps », résume Philippe Jourdan, à la tête de Promise Consulting. La part des soldes et autres promotions représente désormais 41 % des achats dans la mode (source : Institut français de la mode, IFM), contre 39 % en 2012.

Après la vente à distance, les grands magasins sont les champions de la remise, avec « Les 3J » ou « Huit Jours en Or », sans parler des ventes privées : les prix barrés ont représenté 45 % de leur chiffre d'affaires en 2016, note l'IFM (40 % en 2015). «  Les réductions dans les chaînes ont débuté depuis le 26 décembre, il y a donc déjà eu beaucoup d'articles vendus pour une clientèle de privilégiés détenteurs de cartes », note Claude Boulle, président exécutif de l'Alliance du commerce. Depuis le lendemain de Noël, en effet, les Galeries Lafayette proposent à leurs meilleurs clients des « avant-premières ».

D'une façon générale, les enseignes multiplient les invitations pour des ventes privées bien avant la date officielle des soldes. Avec cette valse permanente des étiquettes, les consommateurs n'y comprennent plus rien. « Les soldes sont le seul moment où ils savent à quoi s'attendre, car c'est réglementé, note Bernard Morvan, président de la Fédération nationale de l'habillement. Aujourd'hui, il y a une telle agressivité entre les chaînes que, dans ces réseaux, seuls 24 % des articles sont vendus au prix initial. » Une guerre alimentée par des enseignes comme Primark, qui fragilise les autres acteurs du marché. Sans parler des ouvertures du dimanche, fustigées notamment par les indépendants, qui y voient une concurrence déloyale.

« Début de rationalisation »

Globalement, les affaires ne vont pas fort pour les vendeurs de vêtements, en témoignent les difficultés de MS Mode, en redressement judiciaire, ou de Vivarte. Les marques Kookaï, Chevignon et Pataugas, mises en vente, ne trouvent apparemment pas preneur. Cela fait en réalité neuf ans que le marché de l'habillement est en berne dans l'Hexagone. Et cette crise commence à avoir un impact sur le nombre de magasins. Pour la première fois, en 2016, les surfaces commerciales des chaînes spécialisées ont reculé de 3 %, selon l'IFM, «  après vingt-cinq ans de croissance ».

«  C'est un début de rationalisation, tempère Claude Boulle, qui observe que l'offre reste très importante avec, derrière les leaders, des centaines de marques enseignes de toute taille. »

Très dispersé, le paysage français du prêt-à-porter commence à se concentrer, un mouvement qui favorise les leaders et pénalise particulièrement les marques de milieu de gamme, sans avantage prix ni identité forte.

En savoir plus sur : [CLIQUER ICI]

FROM OBSERVER.COM | BY JEENA SHARMA | JANUARY, 03 2017

Chinese shoppers are no longer blinded by bling, visitors can get better deals elsewhere

The latest dent in Hong Kong’s flailing retail market came with U.S. clothing brand Abercrombie & Fitch calling time on its flagship store two years before the end of its lease.

The city, which has witnessed a consistent luxury slump since 2013, saw many major brands such as Ralph Lauren, Forever 21, Prada and Paul Smith pull out flagships earlier this year. Italian luxury clothing and accessories label Tonio Lamborghini also shut more than 10 of its stores and in-store counters in the city. Official Hong Kong government data shows a consistent decline in retail sales since 2013 through 2016, when sales reached their lowest point. While Abercrombie & Fitch, which is battling with its own financial instability, blames exorbitant rents (HK$7 million ($0.9 million in monthly rent) as the prime reason, for other brands the picture is less clear.

With the amount of Mainland Chinese shoppers the city was host to, Hong Kong was once hailed as the ‘Great Mall of China.’  However, Chinese shopping tourism hit a major lull post the anti-corruption crackdown initiated by President Xi Jinping in 2012. The initiative, intended to eliminate corruption of  high profile Chinese government officials had the biggest negative impact on the retail market, particularly in luxury. The high exchange value of the Hong Kong dollar further contributed to the weakening of  the city’s position as a retail destination, as the territory price advantage gradually diminished for Chinese tourists.

“Shopping in Hong Kong is no longer a bargain for Chinese tourists. The traveling Chinese consumer is now opting for alternative destinations like South Korea, Japan, or Greece. These are places with a little bit more character, a distinct point of view, or places that offer experiences beyond shopping,”  Saisangeeth Daswani, Advisory Strategist at innovation and trend research corporation, Stylus, told Observer.com.

The evolving tastes and aesthetic of the Chinese consumer seem to be another important factor responsible for the retail shift. While Hong Kong offers some of the best-known designer stores in the world, it fails to attract the increasingly sophisticated and well-informed shoppers from abroad. Both domestic and foreign consumers in the city have become smarter about where to find products for the lowest prices and demand more in return for their money.

“What’s key for luxury brands in Hong Kong is to consider the consumer’s changing mindset and offer more immersive, unconventional and discovery-based experiences,” said Daswani. “The luxury brands have been too focused on products, prices and sales. Consumers want more from their purchases than simply getting their hands on the latest accessory, they want an experience, a story to tell.”  Studies indicate that Chinese consumers now look to distinguish their choices from the most obvious mainstream brands and regular edition products. Flashy logos and shiny watches just don’t hold as much appeal as they did anymore.

“The Asian consumer’s style sense is evolving, and their fashion purchasing behavior is becoming more European. The appeal of the preppy look is diminishing and people don’t see the need to buy luxury when attractive premium brands offer similar looks,” agreed Jaana Jätyri, CEO at trend forecasting agency, Trendstop.

Since most of the luxury category brands are only accessible to the Chinese shopper who is able to travel beyond China, many have opted to simply shop online, much like the American consumer.

Prada, which also closed much of its primary stores in the city, indicated the brand will now cater to the Chinese market through e-commerce. “The Hong Kong closure is part of a worldwide, strategic realignment of brand retail channels. Over the next two years, Prada will strengthen its own e-commerce platform, giving priority to China, Hong Kong and Singapore with the objective of achieving global reach,” an official spokesperson for the company told the Observer.

While this could eventually strengthen a new shopping model for the country, unfortunately it means more woes for Hong Kong’s traditional retail market. However, Daswani believes all hope is not lost. As retail rents in Hong Kong continue to fall as a result of high end departures, mid-market, ‘contemporary fashion’ and affordable luxury brands are jumping in. Moreover, analysts predict that if the exchange values of the HK dollar stabilize in 2017 leading into increased consumer confidence, retail sales may slowly recover during 2018 in Hong Kong, albeit in a different kind of retail store.

Whether the city will regain its status as a hot shopping heaven, only time will tell. As of now, an overall uncertainty clouds the Hong Kong luxury market, and it’s up to the retailers to adapt to the new consumer interests and adjust to this broadening notion of luxury. Elsewhere, shoppers are experiencing a rise in customization offers, one offs, local exclusive pieces, limited editions and in-store exclusive events, Hong Kong retailers may need to catch up.

[LIRE L'ARTICLE EN ENTIER]

FROM QUARTZ MEDIA LLC | WRITTEN BY MARC BAIN | 24 JANUARY, 04 2017

Last year was a bad one for many companies selling expensive fashion, handbags, and jewelry. For the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, the global market for personal luxury goods failed to grow, stalling at €249 billion (about $258 billion).

The good news is that 2017 should see a return to growth, according to a Dec. 28 report on the global luxury market by management consulting firm Bain & Company, only it won’t look anything like the boom years from 2010 to 2015, when global sales of such goods jumped 45%, fueled by Chinese consumers with high-end appetites. The slowing of China’s economy and its government’s ongoing crackdown on corruption, paired with turmoil in the US and Europe from Brexit, terrorism, and the US presidential election, have created a “new normal” of low single-digit growth and intense competition. The years ahead will produce “clear winners and losers,” Bain says, determined by which brands can read the field and respond best.

China is at the center of this shift. Today Chinese shoppers account for 30% of all sales of personal luxury goods. While Bain foresees the Chinese market improving again after contracting slightly in 2016, it isn’t likely to return to its former rate of expansion, which insulated brands’ bottom lines from other problems. “We expect around 30 million new customers in the next five years coming from the Chinese middle class,” Claudia D’Arpizio, a Bain partner and lead luxury analyst, told Quartz in an interview last year. “But this is nothing comparable to the past big waves of demographics entering [the market]. This new normality will mean mainly trying to grow organically in the same consumer base, being more innovative with product, more innovative with communication.”

Exane BNP Paribas echoed the thought in a December research note to clients. “The peak of the largest nationality wave ever to benefit luxury goods is behind us,” the authors wrote. “Brands need a new paradigm, other than opening more stores in China and bumping up prices.”

The period luxury is entering could see some of its slowest growth since it started opening up to a mass audience around 1994. That was the year, D’Arpizio noted, that “the jeweler of kings and queens,” Cartier, launched its first lower-priced line for mainstream consumers. Other brands followed in search of greater sales, and names “like Gucci, Prada, also Bulgari were really growing, doubling size every year, sometimes triple-digit growth rates, opening up to 60 stores every year and covering all the capitals across the globe,” she said.

Around 2001 came another period of expansion when brands became global retailers, not just selling wholesale, amid a spate of acquisitions that would eventually create today’s giant luxury conglomerates, including LVMH and Kering (previously Gucci Group). By the time of the financial crisis, luxury had conquered much of the US, Europe, and Japan, and then China came along to offer more unfettered growth.

There’s no new China, however, at least not now. The next big luxury market is likely Africa, particularly countries such as Congo, Angola, and South Africa. But D’Arpizio estimated this scenario won’t come about for seven to 10 years, meaning only moderate expansion for some time.

“In the new normal, we expect a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3% to 4% for the luxury goods market through 2020, to approximately €280 billion,” Bain’s report says. “That is significantly slower than the rapid expansion from the mid-1990s to the late 2000s.”

Other characteristics of this new period include more shoppers making purchases at home. Last year, local purchases exceeded tourist purchases by five percentage points, the first time since 2001 that has happened.

And digital sales will keep growing. Last year they accounted for 8% of the industry.

[LIRE L'ARTICLE EN ENTIER] 

FROM LUXURY DAILY | FROM SATRAH JONES | JANUARY 5, 2017

France’s Chanel is exploring the anti-aging secrets of three far-flung populations with a shared claim.

The beauty brand’s newly released Blue Serum took inspiration from Blue Zones around the world, places where the locals live remarkably longer lives. In an effort to prove the claims of its product, Chanel is inviting consumers to journey to these locales in a series of short films.

Chanel was reached for comment.

FEELING BLUE

Chanel’s Blue Serum is being touted by the brand as “a new horizon for skincare.”Explaining the inspiration and ingredient sourcing for this serum, Chanel filmed travel diaries to the Blue Zones that contributed to the product.

Against footage taken in Costa Rica, a female narrator says, “You can feel the life force in everything and everywhere.” Portraying this energy are images of waterfalls amid greenery.

Still from Chanel's Blue Serum film

The voiceover explains how Costa Rica’s green coffee can only be found in the country, which may contribute to the locals’ long lives.

In Italy, the Mediterranean locale is said to be the home of centuries’ old olive trees.

Chanel turns its attention to the sun in Greece, which it says is in everything. This includes soil, plants and the lentisk tree.

Discover the Power of Blue Serum - Chanel

All videos include the statement, “It’s something special. Some call it a mystery. It’s just life.”

These ingredients—sourced from Nicoya, Costa Rica; Sardinia, Italy and Ikaria, Greece, all hold antioxidant properties. According to the brand, a trial found the serum to reduce wrinkles, even skin tone and firm skin.

[LIRE L'ARTICLE EN ENTIER]